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I can't take this franchise renegotiation seriously, so for this month I have handed over to Roddy Orr-Watt, (‘Bonkers' to his chums) to take you through the third party bidders for franchise replacememt. Roddy is the founder of Rail Index, the successful city-based railway spread betting firm.
Hi! Bonkers Orr-Watt here. How many third parties have thrown their hats in to the ring?. 'A few', according to Shadow Strategic Rail Authority Chief Executive Mike Grant. Pushed as to whether the number was in double figures he would only repeat 'A few'. My spread is 12-15.
But he did say that there was at least one facilities management company among the third parties. Serco seems the most likely candidate.
Most of the leading bus groups are ‘wired in' (SSRA speak) to rail franchises. Arriva, who lost out the first time round, have entered the bidding.
Existing bus group franchisees are likely to seek to extend their rail portfolios. FirstGroup can be expected to put in expressions of interest for all 18 of the seven year franchises, Stagecoach is active and National Express is cautious.
Prism has confirmed that it will bid for franchises which would make a good ‘fit' with the existing group. But see what Roger has to say on new geography.
Also identified SSRA as potential bidders are the new groups and consortia set up to progress PFI/PPP schemes.
But by far the biggest hoot is the news that Virgin Group is bidding for InterCity East Coast. Now you might think the Government would never allow even Virgin a monopoly of Anglo-Scots rail travel, but this doesn't worry Richard Branson's spin-meister and in-house rail guru Will Whitehorn.
And it has to be said that Virgin is walking the walk on the West Coast Main Line spending Rolling Stock Company and Railtrack's money by the billion. And think what Virgin could offer on the ECML: a follow on order to the West coast Pendolino fleet with deliveries starting in 2002, some integrated transport initiatives through Cross Country. And you could run Super voyagers to Inverness and Aberdeen .
So the message to all you seven year franchisees out there must be no one is safe from replacement. Be afraid, be very afraid.
But there are defensive strategies. What if, say, Ed Burkhardt decides to have a go at the passenger business and puts in an unbeatable bid for Chiltern?
Well M40 Trains has two options. First, it can accept that it has lost and sell out the remainder of the Chiltern Railways franchise to Ed - assuming the value of two years outstanding can be agreed.
Or, the franchise owner can sit tight, run the franchise out to its end and then take its chance when the franchise is retendered. This also exposes the opposition's plans allowing you time to develop a killer bid of your own.
This column could run and run. Bye for now.