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Hi! ‘Bonkers' Orr-Watt back again. Roger still can't take franchise replacement seriously so he's asked me to do a quick update.
On 22 December the Shadow Strategic Rail Authority announced the shortlisted bidders for the first three franchises. Talk about usual suspects.
About the only excitement was on InterCity East Coast where my old mucker Will Whitehorn, who got Virgin into trains in the first place, is back in full cry.
Virgin's bid for the East Coast is part of a grand strategy that would recreate InterCity. If Virgin were to get East Coast, and I can't see any competition issues to stop them, the next stage would be to bring Great Western into Sir Richard's railway empire. Real George Hudson stuff.
Of course GNER are muttering away about the SSRA creating a usurpers' charter, but they have a weak hand on investment which could offset Virgin's naff customer service.
SSRA have bigger concerns and in accepting Virgin as a bidder Mike Grant emphasised that they will have to satisfy him that they have the resources to manage the additional franchise, that they can deliver the required performance standard and that it is in the interests of passengers that the two major Anglo-Scots franchises should have a common owner.
It's a close one to call and it's causing us all sorts of problems creating a book at my spread betting company Rail Index. At present it looks like evens on GNER and 11/13 on for Virgin. But it's early days.
Chiltern has bus giants Arriva and Go-Ahead challenging mi amigo Adrian Shooter's M40 Trains. ‘Shoots' ought to walk this, unless the SSRA are hoping for a naïve bid from a mug punter.
I reckon that M40 Trains, owned by Laing (who Sir Alastair Morton rates highly) will come up with a killer strategic bid which will blow the busmen out of the water. Look for double tracking throughout and high performance diesel multiple units which will allow Chiltern to compete on journey time and quality of service while Virgin West Coast struggles through a possession ridden building site (AKA the WCML) for the next five years.
Finally, there's Network South Central where tears before bedtime seems guaranteed. The choice of potential usurpers – GoVia who own Thameslink and Stagecoach who own SWT – hint at the way the SSRA is thinking.
Hence the smart money is on a whole lot of usurpin' goin' on, with Connex losing the franchise in a two way split with Thameslink taking the long distance and SWT the inner suburban services.
We're developing a spread on how many of the 18 franchises up for replacement will change hands. More of which anon.
See ya.
National Express Group keeps trying.National Express will offer a commitment to fund the £50m Hanslope junction flyover plus a fleet of 12 140mile/h tilting trains for London Northampton services when offers are invited for the replacement of the North London Railways franchise, which NEG currently operates under the Silverlink brand name. The commitment will also include replacement of the Class 321 fleet. Estimated value of the two new train fleets is £150m @News:This announcement, made by Charles Belcher, Managing Director of Silverlink Train Services, followed Railtrack's confirmation that two paths an hour will be available on the fast lines when Virgin starts operating at 140mile/h in 2005. According to Belcher 'subject to franchise replacement, all customers of Silverlink Country services will be travelling in brand new trains within four years'. NEG would acquire or lease 12 Pendolino tilting trains for the fast Northampton services plus around 20 4-6 car electric multiple units, with similar accommodation, to replace existing Class 321 stock on the semi-fast and stopping trains serving the London-Northampton route. The present 1hr London-Northampton journey time would be reduced to 40min for the fast trains, with London-Milton Keynes falling from 36min to 28min. Subject to timetabling constraints the new fast trains might also serve Leighton Buzzard and Bletchley during peak periods.
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