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No Roddy Orr-Watt this month. As an astute businesman ‘Bonkers' realised that with 18 franchises to be replaced all the bidders would need flashy audio visual presentations to sell their ideas to Government, the SSRA, local authorities et all. And, as a backer, I am pleased to report that Bonkers Rail Visions.com is going so well that an IPO is planned soon.
However, there is a downside, Roddy is so busy that I have to bite the bullet and try to take franchise replacement seriously again: so here goes.
We are now seeing the thousand flowers blooming that Shadow Strategic Rail Authority Chairman Sir Alastair Morton called for.
First to break cover was Connex, where the message for Network south Central is obviously capacity, capacity, capacity. Central to the Connex is the upgrading of existing lines to create two 100mile/h routes parallel to the Brighton main line. The Brighton line would also be upgraded, with current bottlenecks removed and capacity improvements made in the inner-suburban area.
One of the new routes would run from Littlehampton to London via Horsham, Dorking and Sutton. The second route would be created in two phases. First Uckfield-Oxted would be electrified. Then, the line would be double- tracked and existing alignments reinstated to link Lewes and Tunbridge Wells via Eridge. This would allow services to Victoria (via Croydon) and Charing Cross (via Tunbridge Wells).
Funding of the two route upgrades could be through a Build/Lease/Transfer (BLT) deal. Connex Chairman and Chief Executive Antoine Hurel told me, ‘The two new main lines would not earn an adequate rate of return on the investment in isolation; all three routes would have to be considered together'.
He could see a three way deal set up between Connex, Railtrack and the BLT company which would carry out and fund the upgrades. The lease payments would be taken from the track access charges for all three routes.
To meet the additional cost there would have to be ‘something from the customer and something from the taxpayer', according to M. Hurel
As with other commuter franchises, the key to success is attracting more off-peak traffic.
In the outer suburban catchment area accessibility is seen as the key. There would be 59 ‘Easy access' stations with particular attention given to making travel less threatening. Hence off-peak car parking close to the station entrance, glass fronted concourses and family waiting rooms. ‘This will not be a lick of paint on derelict stations', says Connex.
This programme should mean that anyone living in the Network South Central outer suburban area will be within a 15min car journey of an accessible station. Note ‘car' and not ‘bus'.
There would also be 105 inner suburban ‘Metro' stations with a minimum service of four trains an hour and staffed from the first to last service of the day. Once again, security will be the dominant feature of this refurbishment programme, including Secure Station accreditation.
Other infrastructure upgrade would include track and signalling on the Brighton main line, including elimination of bottlenecks at Windmill Bridge Junction (near East Croydon), Redhill and Gatwick Airport . Track layouts at Brighton station and the approaches to Victoria would also be remodelled to improve operational reliability and capacity.
Inner suburban capacity enhancement work would include turn back facilities and new flyovers. But Connex emphasises that this would still insufficient terminal platforms. It would seek to relieve this pressure by running trains to new destinations made possible by the West London Line and Thameslink 2000 projects.
Rolling stock is a big disappointment, with like for like replacement of existing slam door vehicles and probably refurbishing the inner suburban fleet. Connex Managing Director Geoff Harrison-Mee reckons that the reduced capacity of the replacement stock – a function of crashworthiness requirements and disability provision, will be offset by more intensive utilisation.
Hmm. But one thing is certain, there will be no life extension of the slam door stock beyond January 1 which would require the fitting of the Health & Safety Executive's cup and cone anti over-ride equipment. Harrison-Mee sees anything less than total replacement of slam door stock as ‘patching up with sticking plaster', while fitting cup and cone was dismissed as ‘ridiculous'
So what about Mk 1 stock replacement if Connex failed in its franchise replacement bid? I'll say this for Geoff, after his long contact with Connex French owners, he has developed a most expressive Gallic shrug.
Connex franchise replacementWhere the money goes Replacing 600 slam door vehicles £500m Railtrack Infrastructure £400m Stations £ 70m Depots £ 5-10m
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So, Connex was a bit flat when, I suspect, the SSRA is looking for big bold projects with lots of risk – like the two Virgin franchises.
Prism was next up and they really have got ‘on message'. On a recent visit to the SSRA's headquarters I noticed the term ‘WalesRail' in use. And at the beginning of February the Welsh Assembly approved an amendment calling for it to be ‘given the same powers as the Scottish parliament to direct the Strategic Rail Authority in relation to a single rail franchise for Wales '.
So that is what Prism has come up with, integrating improved rail services with express coach links routed to close the gaps left by Beeching. This is, I suspect, what SSRA Chairman Sir Alastair Morton is looking for – a genuine new vision rather than the ‘painting by numbers' approach of, say, Connex and GNER.
It is also slick financially. As franchises Wales & West and Cardiff Railway have been a drag on Prism's London commuter businesses. At the same time the SSRA is uncomfortable with the former Regional Railways franchises with their PTE support and massive perpetual subsidies.
So for all concerned, devolving Wales Rail to the Welsh Assembly would create a new self-contained franchise cum-subsidy flow and open up new funding prospects, particularly from the European Community.
There would be some usurping involved, with the WalesRail franchise taking over Central Trains' operations West of Birmingham and First North Western services to Chester and North Wales .
Less compelling is Prism's proposal that WalesRail should include the Wales & West services to Waterloo , Brighton , Portsmouth , Weymouth and Taunton . A Red Dragon franchise operating in England seems perverse, compared with a restructured West of England franchise.
Among the proposals are enhanced North-South services. The faster trains via Shrewsbury would be accelerated by up to an hour while trains via Birmingham would be hourly. At the press conference announcing the proposals mention was made of a sleeper service on this axis too.
So far so good. The main obstacle is Prism's relative size in the transport world. The SSRA wants the new franchise structure to be operated by big concerns able to take long term investment risk on strong balance sheets. A new owner for Prism, which saw its share price rocket when it announced approaches from would-be buyers in January, could well have been announced by the time this is published.
Meanwhile, Just as Prism was announcing Rheilffyrdd Cymru, airports operator BAA and National Express revealed that they were in partnership as Airport Express. This new business is aimed at creating an integrated network of rail, coach and bus link between Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted.
This assumes that Stansted Express is excised from WAGN to be run by Airport Express as a 20 year franchise. Under the franchise Stansted Express would get new trains, similar to the Class 332(?) on Heathrow Express, and infrastructure improvements on the main line out opf Liverpool Street would triple capacity. A second tunnel into the airport would follow.
Naturally, this proposal got up Prism's nose which obviously sees taking over bits of other peoples franchises in the Welsh Marches as one thing but losing a bit of WAGN, something else entirely.
‘We have the WAGN franchise to 2004', Prism huffed, ‘and we have told the SSRA that we intend to retain the franchise'. Anyway, the SSRA ‘has not declared any intention to separate the Stansted service from the WAGN franchise'.
Which reminds me. There seems to be an awful lot of naivety among sitting franchises bidding for replacement contracts. They all tell me that the SSRA loves them and thinks they are doing a great job.
Children, children, they are tough cookies at SSRA. They have to get the best deal or else the Government's Audit Office will want to know why not. They will sweet talk you up to the last, praising your bid which would be much more attractive if only you would make a tweak here, offer a smidgeon there, give a little bit, take a tiny bit more risk. And then say, thanks but no thanks. When dealing with the SSRA you should remember the words of Richard III.
This is not to criticise the SSRA in any way. Their job is to sell franchises dearly and they do it very well. But equally I remember how jolly everyone at the press briefing to announce that MTL had won Regional Railways North East. Bliss was it at that time to be in the bus industry, to have won another franchise was very heaven. Be warned
Slaps on the wristAs you may imagine, while this column rarely needs to name the guilty men, they know who they are. Equally, they know who they aren't. And after last month's comments on GNER's traction plans I was upbraided by a chum who wanted to know what made me think that he would be so stupid as to propose coupling and uncoupling diesel locos to IC225s when you could have a permanently coupled 4000hp plus diesel on the back. Sorry chaps. There was also a certain froideur when I attended an Institution of Railway Signal Engineers meeting. My robust comments on the need to move 400 signals to allow 125 running on the West Coast Main Line were, to put it politely, ill informed and inaccurate. Several other chums also pointed out that they may be retired but are not yet grizzled. While I stand rebuked, I am still not convinced about that 400. Say 650km between London and Glasgow , signals spaced at 1km intervals roughly, double that for up and down fast lines gives 1300 signals – so about a third have to be moved to go from 110mile/h to 125mile/h. Non grizzled informed veterans are not convinced either. More research is called for. Watch this space
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We are not aloneI quote from an article in the Sunday Telegraph. ‘For Tony Blair to blame X is a measure of many things ; the ruthlessness of this government; its overriding concern for its own skin; its lack of courage…;and its willingness to ditch anyone or anything that might endanger its own re-election' After Ladbroke Grove (see Informed Sources December) X = Railtrack. This time X= Jennie Page the sacked head of the Millenium Dome. If the railways continue to embarrass the Government some other names could enter this simple equation. Meanwhile, far from Railtrack being ‘stripped of its safety responsibility', the report commissioned by John Prescott (remember him?) on this subject is likely to call only for more formal separation between Safety & Standards Directorate and Railtrack Line. And as you can see in the latest Railtrack Safety Report this month (plug) I reckon that S&SD is already taking a much tougher line all round. Talk about a U-turn. Perhaps X might equal John Prescott
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