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If DC electrification really does cost £3million per mile the Southern Region power upgrade is in deep, deep trouble
Back when Connex was trying to extend the South Central franchise the company offered a package of benefits including electrification of the Ashford-Hastings and Uckfield-Hurst Green lines. The proposal came to naught but infill electrification was included in GOVIA's new franchise.
Both two schemes duly appeared in the table of ‘Medium Term' committed projects in the SRA's Strategic Plan published on January 14 this year(Informed Sources March). The Plan came out after this column revealed the emerging power supply crisis on Southern Region (Modern Railways January).
When I asked SRA Chairman Richard Bowker about the status of the projects in the table, he told me, ‘That (the list of projects) is funded and that will be delivered'. The two infill electrifications had a ‘milestone' date of mid 2006.
Now, the SRA has told passenger groups that the two infill electrification schemes will not go ahead after all, because Cost Benefit Analysis shows that the £154m combined cost is nine times the benefit to the public. According to the SRA the need to upgrade the Southern Region 750V dc traction power supply to meet the demands of Mk 1 replacement stock also has priority over the infill schemes.
Talk about boiling frogs. Does the SRA really believe that it will cost £154million to electrify 50 route miles of lightly used line? Apparently so, because the prices in Table 2 were given me by the SRA Press Office.
Time for a quick reality check. In 1986 BR authorised the 34.7 route miles of the Bournemouth-Weymouth electrification at a cost of £24.5million in 2002 money.
I know it drives the SRA wild when I quote BR numbers and they go around saying that ‘Roger wants to go back to BR'. But it isn't true.
I want to go forward to a cost effective railway that works. There is no BR to which to return. And even if BR existed today, it probably couldn't do projects for the same money because of Health ‘n' Safety and all the other treacle.
But when you are temporarily unaware of your position it helps to know where you have come from. And if BR could electrify a busy main line used by 100mile/h stock for £700,000 per mile in modern money, £3million a mile is a bonkers price.
Even if you apply a Ford Factor of pi to the BR cost you only get, (set ‘only' in ironic bold please) £2.2million per mile. So someone is sitting there in the SRA Headquarters contentedly going ‘ribbit, ribbit' in a cloud of superheated steam.
Look at it another way. I reckon a package substation should cost about £750,000 but say £1million. Nominally you have one every three miles with a cheaper track paralleling (TP) hut in between.
But these are lightly used lines so say a substation every four miles feeding high conductivity aluminium/steel conductor rail. You might even get away with taking the feed from the existing network, add in the Railtrack Buggeration Factor and the two infills still ought to come in at under £1million per mile.
Something is severely wrong somewhere. And what the SRA doesn't seem to have twigged is that the infill costs it gave me with such insouciance are very bad news indeed for the Southern Region power supply upgrade.
| Route | Length | Cost |
| Ashford-Hastings | 25.1miles | £74.6m |
| Uckfield–Hurst | 25 miles | £78.8m |
Source: SRA
An indicative figure of £500million has been quoted for this scheme by the SRA, although the OJEC Notice was so comprehensive, virtually total replacement, that £500million sounded awfully optimistic.
When you think about it, the upgrade is similar in scope to the infills. New substations, to replace TP Huts, possible up-rating of the existing sub-stations, new cabling and grid supply points.
So multiply the SRA's £3million per mile by the 1100 route miles or so of DC electrification on the Southern and you get a very big number indeed. So big as to be ludicrous. So big as to be unaffordable.
But then I remembered a chat with a chum at Bob Breakwell's farewell party. Talking about the cost of the power upgrade he remarked that the £500million might just cover the SWT area. I thought he was joking; now I'm not so sure.
Two final thoughts. First the cost per mile for the two DC infill schemes is similar to that quoted for the Crewe-Kidsgrove AC electrification infill referred to last month. Perhaps £3 per mile is the going rate, as in ‘three ha'pence a foot'.
Second, my suggestion that the ideal replacement for the Thumpers would be a refurbished Pacer, to show the soft Southerners what the industrial North has to put up with, hasn't caught on. South Central is expected to lease 18 two car class 170 diesel multiple units from Porterbrook.
I am indebted to a chum for pointing out t present, excluding maintenance spares, the Ashford-Hastings service is operated by three units and off-peak the Uckfield service is operated by two 3-car units. At peak times there are two 6 car through trains from London .
I make that 9 three cars to be replaced by 18 two cars, albeit the Turbostars will have 2+2 seating.. Was that written into the CBA?
Meanwhile, the Turbostars will come from the ‘speculative' order for 45 vehicles placed with Bombardier in June. Isn't it amazing how Porterbrook seems to find homes for its speculative orders so quickly. I think it's called reading the market