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INFORMED SOURCES November 2002

CTRL domestic stock running late

Here's a scoop! The invitations to tender haven't been issued and the EMUs to provide domestic services on the CTRL are already up to a year late

With Eurostar ridership falling far short of the original projections, London & Continental Railways, owners of the Channel Tunnel Rail Link are getting much more relaxed about who uses their high speed route. Freight, which was once discouraged, could now be made welcome – at least overnight, provided it can knock on a bit. Then there are the domestic services into St Pancras.

Current expectations are that CTRL ‘domestics' will serve Canterbury , Ramsgate, Folkestone and Dover , with Ashford International as the focal point. From Ashford the trains will run at ‘up to' 140mile/h into St Pancras. Note, no snide cross reference to the previous item.

Phase 1 of the CTRL is coming on nicely, so there is no reason why Phase 2 should not be completed on time. Which means that in January 2007 Kent commuters could be in for a treat – assuming they want to go to north London and that the Tubes can get them away from St Pancras.

Who buys?

So what are these super commuter (wasn't that an Abba song – Ed?) trains going to look like. Well, the authoritative answer is – dunno. But informed Sources suggest an imminent announcement from the SRA.

Hang on. Don't train operating companies buy new trains?

Yes, and since CTRL domestics will abstract Connex South Eastern's existing revenue, the obvious thing would be to make the CRTL domestics an extension to the existing 15 year franchise which ends in 2010-11.

So there's the first problem. Connex would have only four years use of the expensive new kit before the existing franchise ended. And what do short leases mean? Correct! Poor residual value and high rental rates.

Anyway, negotiating a franchise deal would take months and when it comes to the new trains months is what we do not have. So, without an operator, it looks as if SRA will have to specify the trains and initiate the procurement exercise itself or through a ROSCO. It could then let out the trains and access contracts as a service delivery contract.

According to ROSCO insiders, an outline specification has been circulated by the SRA. And here's the next problem. We are talking under 200 vehicles, to a highly specialised design, dual voltage operation and pretty well a captive application. That means high capital cost and low residual value.

Problems galore

Any more problems? Plenty.

Unless my old chum Andrew McNaughton can get his gauging act together, if the trains are to serve stations off the CTRL, the vehicles will have to be 20 metres long. If this is the case, and were I the SRA's technical trouble shooter I would have someone towing a Mk 3 round the routes affected and seeing if any thing touched, the problems multiply.

If you can get route clearance for 23 metre vehicles then the obvious solution is an electric Class 222. Which since it has electric transmission could take an Onix box in place of the diesel engine raft. The 222 also meets 125mile/h crashworthiness requirements.

That would be relatively straightforward. Accommodating crashworthiness requirements in a 20m vehicle would be a technical pain and eat up seating space.

But whatever the approach, four years remain for specification, procurement, design, manufacture, testing and acceptance of new 125mile/h dual voltage commuter EMU.

Now there is general agreement that the Virgin Voyager programme has been the most successful new train procurement exercise of modern times. And Table 1 shows that acquisition of the Class 220 DEMU fleet, took five years from the announcement of the requirement to delivery of the full fleet. And the CTRL stock would need a high power electrical safety case.

It is also a fair bet that the in-tunnel running between Stratford and St Pancras will require additional safety measures similar to those applying to Eurostar. And if a 20m vehicle is mandated fitting in the extra grey boxes with the TVM430 signalling equipment for the CTRL would probably fill up the cab ends.

So, what chance of domestic CTRL services in January 2007? Or any time 2007, come to that. Not very good.

Holding operation

As a holding operation you could run the existing Regional Eurostars as CTRL domestics from Ashford, with cross platform transfer for feeders service from Kent . And Ashford International and Ebbsfleet could also act as parkways

A more imaginative idea was to link the feeders into double deck TGVs Unfortunately, the domestic platforms at St Pancras are being built to the UK loading gauge.

Class 220 procurement

Fleet 136 vehicles

Continues.........