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INFORMED SOURCES March 2006

Captain Deltic's new trains miscellany

The long march continues and SWT gets a top-up

Remember my Chinese diesel multiple unit exclusive in the October 2004 column, which some readers thought was a spoof? Well, a pilot order for Northern is getting closer.

According to Informed Sources, vehicles could be ordered from the CSR Ziyang Locomotive Works this year. The deal would be sponsored by regional body Yorkshire Forward which would also provide financial support for the train operator.

Due diligence, was due to have started before the end February. Assuming this is satisfactory, Heads of Agreement for the pilot contract could be in place by the end of March.

This timescale would see the contract placed in the second quarter of this year. A pre-series unit could start trial running at the end of 2007.

Less is less

Note that the quantity has fallen. Back in October 2004, Rolling Stock Companies had been asked to fund a fleet of up to 200 vehicles. In their successful franchise bid, Serco/NedRail were proposing replacement of the Northern Pacer DMUs as a way of reducing maintenance costs.

A maximum price of £650,000 per vehicle was needed to support the financial case, undercutting even the Pacific Rim builders. Subsequently the quantity fell to 140 vehicles, which would have replaced the 158 Class 142 vehicles owned by Angel Trains, the oldest Pacers in the Northern fleet. In the event, replacement did not become a franchise commitment but the

Now we are down to a pilot order for 50 units, which increases the commercial risk of not recovering the investment in design, manufacturing facilities and bought-in sub-components. Informed Sources close to the project reckon that 60 units would be a more commercially realistic number.

Welsh ambition

Meanwhile, the Welsh Assembly is reported to be considering additional funding to replace Pacers on the Cardiff Valleys services with modern diesel multiple units. The trouble is that, while Pacers may not be cheerful, they are (contrary to urban myth) very cheap

In 1985, a new Class 142 Pacer cost £170,000. That's the equivalent of £350,000 at today's prices.

ROSCO rentals are divided into capital and non-capital elements. The capital element pays the return on the asset, the non-capital covers overhaul and other engineering costs.

Currently, the capital rental for a Pacer is around £17,000 per vehicle per year. Reflecting the ageing asset and the state of the market, Pacer capital rentals have fallen by 25% or more in the last five years.

Non-capital rental, is based on actual engineering costs. Today, for a Class 142 it is typically £36,000 per vehicle per year. This should fall as the vehicles approach scrapping, and the need to provide for major overhauls disappears.

How much will the Pacer replacement cost? Let's assume £750,000 per vehicle. The rate of return will depend on vehicle life, but assuming 25 years would give a capital element of £55,000.

So the total rental on a Pacer vehicle (£53,000) is roughly the same as the capital element of its replacement. The same calculations on a replacement cost of £600,000 and a 30 year life, give a capital rental of £40,000.

That is before non-capital charges and maintenance costs. Compared with a Pacer any replacement vehicle is going to be technically advanced. Air conditioning, disabled toilets and passenger displays are all dependent on electronics systems. This will require better qualified and equipped maintenance staff.

How complexity translates into non-capital rentals goes beyond my rules of thumb, but a relatively modern DMU, such as the air conditioned Class 158 has a non-capital element of around £65,000 per vehicle per year.

In the proposal to replace the Valleys Pacers the motive is not cost saving but improved reliability. How you quantify reliability benefits in cash terms is not clear, but taken with improved ambience you would expect to see increased ridership and revenue.

There is a further factor in the Valleys project. Readers will be able to advise, but I suspect that 20m long vehicles will be needed. And as far as I know, no-one is building or proposing to build a UK 20m long DMU.

Of course, the obvious replacement for a Pacer is the next step up the ladder – a refurbished Class 150. Once upon a time, these would have been made available through a cascade, but to do that today would require cooperation between TOCs and what might be seen as collusion among ROSCOs. I can't see DfT Rail saluting if that one was run up the flagpole!

Desiro top-up

Not only have SWT's Class 450 Siemens Desiro electric multiple units yet to deliver the promised 50,000 miles per casualty, they are also a bit lacking in the availability department. Or, more likely, their home depot is a bit too small for the task.

Either way, DfT Rail is acquiring a further 17 Class 450s for SWT. Neither DfT Rail nor Siemens were prepared to comment on the order, but according to Informed sources, six of the four car units will be used to compensate for lower than predicted availability from the existing Class 450 fleet: the remainder represent a mini growth build.

So having taken away 100 vehicles from SWT's previous growth build of 32 five car Class 450 units for service on the West Coast Main Line, DfT Rail is now fattening up the franchise for re-letting.

For Siemens, the 17 units will keep the UK Desiro production line running when Northern's Class 185 order ends. This, in turn, would give the option to follow on with extra cars to strengthen the Northern units if demand keeps on increasing.

ELL Extension

Also on the near horison is the fleet for the East London Line Extension. Alstom retired hurt, leaving Bombardier, Hitachi , Porterbrook and Siemens to battle it out.

Porterbrook? Yes, the company is offering the Class 458 fleet, fully refurbished and RVAR compliant and with a known NFRiP record. Alstom is understood to be supporting the bid.

Pre-owned versus new is a clever call. The 18 diagram timetable specified by Transport for London would need 22 units, but Porterbrook is offering 28 sets for much the same leasing costs as 22 new trains.

This offers capacity for growth, not to mention the Olympics. Alternatively the Class 458s could be reformed as 24 x 5-car sets for the same money, with Selective Door Opening for short platforms.