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Something old and something new this month
You may have noticed that despite time running out, no mention was made in last month's Top Ten decisions of the need to order new coaches to length the Alstom Pendolino's on the West Coast Main Line. This is because the negotiations between Virgin Trains and DfT over the reinstatement of the Virgin West Coast franchise seem to be approaching a mutually acceptable deal.
When I spoke to Virgin Trains Chief Executive Tony Collins in August (Informed sources September) he saw the key to a deal as DfT's confidence in Virgin's ridership and revenue forecasts. The latest figures validate the train operator's expectations.
In the 13 four week periods to 19 August this year ridership grew by 11.2%. With PPMs improving too, DfT's confidence in Virgin's proposed subsidy/premium profile for the remaining years of the franchise must be growing.
But a franchise based on continuing growth will need more capacity and that means lengthening the Pendolinos and, ideally, strengthening the fleet. As explained in the September column, this is inextricably linked with the heavy maintenance schedule.
There is a narrow window of opportunity for extra cars to be fitted as the Pendolinos start to come in for their ‘H2' overhaul from December 2008. for this to be achieved long lead-time items have to be ordered pronto.
Longest lead-time of all is the supply of the extruded aluminium ‘planks' from which the bodyshell is fabricated. Back in September I expected that space on the big extrusion presses would have to booked by the end of October.
Since then, Alstom has gone back to the aluminium extrusion supplier. The good news is that they can wait until 1 January for a decision, with a firm contract needed by the end of March, when Alstom would start paying serious money up front. The even better news is that, with this timescale, the first bodyshells would be ready by the end of 2007.
In terms of procurement, this means that DfT Rail would need to give Alstom a formal Notification To Proceed for the extra vehicles by the end of this year, with the contract following. According to Informed Sources the 11 car option remains the most attractive in terms of the long term business case.
You may wonder why there is nothing in this month's column about the award of the South Western franchise to Stagecoach. Perversely, DfT Rail won't release the detailed subsidy/premium profile until they have de-briefed the unsuccessful bidders.
Our man in South Western Land , the sage of Effingham Junction is covering the operational and service details this month on page xx. DfT Rail permitting I will analyse the financial aspects next month.
Thanks for the lively and thoughtful response to last month's ‘Ten decisions where the industry struggles'. I wondered whether readers might consider this ‘Informed Sources-lite', but it generated a wealth of detailed analysis, plus further examples.
One reader suggested that the abolition of the DfT should be added to the list. Like Alan Williams I have been hearing more and more on this topic as the year has passed. How, not when, is the main question.
Meanwhile, a coup for the column. ORR Press Office has adopted the Periodic Review Timetable for its own use, and up-dated it and made some helpful tweaks. This version is now on-line in Analysis on Alycidon Rail ( www.alycidon.com ) and the designer and editor are seeing how we can fit it into a future column.