Return to Archive -by date - by topic - 2003.
In the 1980s a spontaneous outburst of irrational exuberance swept through the Governments of Britain, France and Belgian and their state railways. In Britain the change of climate was scarcely believable. After years of being told that its forecasts were over optimistic and its rolling stock proposals too ambitious in numbers and extravagantly costly British Rail was encouraged to spend, spend, spend.
Yes, an epidemic of Channel Tunnel fever had gripped the country. And, yes, we were as enthusiastic as the rest.
Rather like seeing your younger self in photographs, viewed from the 21 st Century the Channel Tunnel years seem an alien country. Did we really have long hair and wear loon pants? Did we really believe the low ridership estimate, yes, the low estimate, which forecast passenger journeys in 2003 at 17.4million, of which 12.6million would be to and from London , another 2.4million at Ashford and a similar quantity generated by North of London services?
Ah, North of London . At least we subjected those services to our customary flinty analysis. We well remember at the inauguration of work on Waterloo International, as a space suited Transport Minister Roger Freeman attacked the terrazzo with a pneumatic drill, betting BR's European Passenger Services' supremo a fiver that the over-night stock would never carry passenger through the Chunnel. He eventually paid up.
And was there ever a more blatant Government con trick than Section 40 of the Channel tunnel Act 1987 which required BR to consult the English Regions plus Scotland , Wales and Northern Ireland on their requirements for through services beyond London . The list of ‘planned' services published in December 1989 is a reminder of the madness.
To take some examples, daytime services, services plural, from Edinburgh to Paris/Brussels. For Northern Ireland connections at Glasgow or Carlisle into overnight services to ‘mainland Europe '. A night service from Plymouth ‘calling at principal places via Bristol ' to Paris , Brussels and beyond. Ditto for Swansea , Cardiff and Newport . And all double headed with Class 37s.
But the core London -Paris/Brussels Eurostar services was genuinely exciting. We really did look forward to being able to go to Waterloo , get on a train and arrive in our nearest European capitals.
One November Sunday afternoon shortly before the tunnel opened we remember arriving back in Paris after a day trip by TGV to Bordeaux and realising that in future, with some quick footwork, it would be possible to extend this journey and be back in the home counties by train by bed-time, courtesy Eurostar.
Now, ten years on, and with the Channel Tunnel Rail Link due to open later this year, the bubble has burst. Having reached a peak of 7.15million passengers in 2000, Eurostar carryings have declined to 6.95 million in 2001 and 6.6million in 2002. During the first three months of this year traffic was 8% down year on year.
So Eurostar traffic in 2003 looks like being half that forecast when work on the Chunnel began. Currently the business is losing around £100million a year. This is before access charges have to be paid for using CTRL Phase 1.
It seems unlikely that the resulting 20minute time saving will generate sufficient revenue to be self financing: the Treasury must feel that it is beleaguered with railway mendicants. Nor can we expect a dramatic turn-round once the CTRL is completed in 2007 and the full benefit is felt.
There are three reasons for Eurostar's fall to earth. Above all, the world has changed. Paris no longer enjoys the cache of the uniquely romantic city and a cultural capital. London no longer swings for tourists. And while Brussels has its own charm it was never a top ten leisure destination.
At the heart of this change lies the low cost airlines, the revolution no one saw coming. Today going to Paris for a wedding anniversary has to compete with dozens of destinations, from Reykjavik to Rome , from Prague to Palma . And if you book ahead, return flights cost less than Eurostar's cheapest return fare.
With Eurostar a three trick pony, its leisure travel market has been abstracted by Easyjet, Ryanair and friends. Even worse, the low cost carriers fly from a airport near you whereas Eurostar means Waterloo or Ashford.
While Eurostar took a 50% share of the London-Paris market, that was in competition with British Airways, British Midland and Air France. Now EasyJet is flying into de Gaul.
And we should remember that the low costs have long outgrown their back-packer past. Go to Luton of an early morning and you will find that the booking-in queues for Amsterdam and Zurich are dominated by suits.
Eurostar's pricing policy has been left behind by this new world order. A reader in Bristol needing to go to Brussels found that, at relatively short notice, he could fly from his local airport for £50 less that the Waterloo-Brussels fare. Quite simply, Eurostar is pricing itself out of the market.
Of course it can be argued that the low costs are not meeting their full environmental charges and that trains have to pay for their infrastructure every inch of the way. But until an ideal world comes along, the market will rule.
There is one further reason why Eurostar has fallen short of the launch prospectus – that one hour time difference between Britain and the continent. Get to Waterloo at a ridiculous hour – 05.15, which means 04.55 with the pretentious 20min booking in time, and you can be in Paris at 09.23. Get to Luton around the same time and you can be at de Gaulle at 07.55.
Leave at a more civilised hour by train or plane and the morning has gone. Of course for inbound travellers, the 07.16 from Paris Nord is a convenient 09.09 for that morning meeting in London . CTRL will bring the outbound time down to three hours on the clock, hut even so, morning meetings will still need a night away – or a flight.
But come 2007, Eurostar should become both more time competitive and more reliable, which should reverse the current decline, at least in the limited market it serves. But in the macro European travel market the original concept can only struggle.
Premium business fares and complimentary champagne are just too ‘80s. But would a new walk on £100 return, say, open business Class ticket pay it's way? And leisure fares are now very expensive compared with the cost of getting to more attractive destinations. Yet, loss making Eurostar faces rising costs as it becomes more competitive.
We don't pretend to have the answers. But a recognition that it can't go on like this would be a first step to recreating Eurostar for the 21 st Century. No dount our readers will oblige